Honest odds for Sin Muela / Moshpit Elite — arcade + forever URL + War Room show. Not hype. Full SSOT: MONETIZATION.md.
Odds before polish + ~100 real players: low. After those gates + itch tip jar + show tips: plausible coffee / gas money — not rent. Top 2: itch PWYW, then Ko-fi/Patreon for the show. Don’t charge the game until feel cert + bottles + mobile + tutorial.
Tip jar labeled “support the build” only. Hard price = reputation hit. Feel cert still open.
itch PWYW / $0 min becomes ethical. Expect downloads ≫ payers (often ~1–5% pay something).
Enough signal for tips, show patrons, fair cosmetics. Still not “hit” territory.
Free play on play.sinmuela.org; itch for download + name-your-price. Best fit after beta 100%.
Agent drama, tunnel nights, inbox seasons — tip the show, not loot boxes.
Adult optional packs only. Merch after brand love. Sponsored forever-URL = unlikely. Pit-crew process licensing = maybe.
Hard no: gacha, pay-to-win, monetizing the Niños profile, or selling unfinished arcade as finished.
Downloads ≠ payers; reminders + honest PWYW framing help.
~5% of PWYW downloaders paid; one priced game beat ten PWYW combined.
itch quiet → Steam EA + streamers + polish. Lottery + craft, not a week plan.
Ashen Crown / Dreamseam / Vibejam — process fame ≠ product revenue. Steal taste control.
tiny wanderer: Patreon ~11% of annual; Ko-fi in the “other” bucket — slice, not whole.